Dodgers First Half Stats and Second Half Predictions

After a successful and eventful All-Star weekend at Dodger Stadium, the Los Angeles Dodgers now set their sights on the second half of the season and a march towards a hopeful World Series win.

While there was a lot of hand wringing by fans over the first half of the season, it really was very good. While managing both key players’ injuries and subpar performances by two usual contributors, the Dodgers still sit atop the NL West with a commanding 10 game lead over the San Diego Padres, and a 12.5 game lead over the San Francisco Giants.

Some fun stats from the first half of the 2022 season –

The Dodgers’ record is 60-30. They have 30 wins on the road, and 30 wins at home. Only four other Dodgers teams have had 60 wins before the All-Star break. Most recently they have done it in 2017 and 2019.

Last season, the Dodgers had 55 wins at the All-Star break, and went on to have a total of 106 win. This season could have even more.

The Dodgers lead the National League in both scored runs and fewest runs allowed, as they have each of the last four season. No team has ever lead a league for five straight years – the Dodgers have an excellent chance at changing that.

But, as we all know, it’s not how you end the first half of the season that counts, it’s the season as a total.

My (somewhat) bold predictions for the second half of the season-

Max Muncy breaks out of his season long slump and goes on a tear. Muncy has been showing signs of doing so here and there towards the latter half of the first half, and a reset at the All-Star break may be just what he needs. It isn’t often that a player slumps for the entire season, and Muncy is indeed due.

Tony Gonsolin will regress more to his mean. Gonsolin has been lights out, garnering an 11-0 record so far. But his last outing and his All-Star outing show he could be regressing some. Sure, they could just be flukes but Catman already has more innings under his belt this season that any season previous. Still, he should continue to be a very good back end of the rotation starter.

But the biggest prediction (read – most obvious) is that this team will not look like it does right now, come September. Whether or not the Dodgers go all in for Juan Soto remains to be seen. But their biggest acquisitions will be those players currently on the IL that should be returning in time for the playoffs.

The best player you can get at the trade deadline is a bullpen piece, and the Dodgers have multiple relievers with returns upcoming. Blake Treinen, Tommy Kahnle, and Brusdar Graterol all should be healthy and ready to go in a few weeks. Dustin May is also returning soon, and could be an excellent piece out of the bullpen.

For starters, both Walker Buehler and Andrew Heaney should be rejoining at some point. That’s six total pitchers the Dodgers have not currently playing that can only make an already great team even better.

This team hasn’t nearly reached its full potential yet and if they do, or even if they just come close, this second half and playoff run should be a heck of a lot of fun.

26 thoughts on “Dodgers First Half Stats and Second Half Predictions

  1. It’s is incredible the wins this team has with the key pitching losses it has had. While I agree Gonsolin will not go 22-0 for the season I think he will only lose 3-4 games. Urias has had terrible support but will be a force in the second half. Does the dominant Buehler come back or is the strain a precursor to another Tommy John surgery? Will Rios return this season? I hope Muncy figured out whatever has effected his first half. If Muncy continues to struggle I think we will see either Busch or Vargas up. Relying on Kimbrel is scary!! The emergence of Phillips and Almonte has helped the bullpen immensely.

  2. Oh boy, predictions.
    These are mine:
    We will not trade for Soto.
    Max will improve over his first half but won’t really come into his own until the playoffs.
    Belli will tootle along the way he has, but also improve for the playoffs.
    We will not trade for a major starting pitcher (Castillo, Montas, Mahle), although AF might go dumpster diving and sign someone like Keuchel who was just dfa’d.
    We will not trade for a major relief pitcher, although we may add an arm or two.
    We will not trade for a major bat.

    As you mentioned, Andy, we have loads of pitching due back from the IL between now and September. If even half of those guys make it back in good shape, we’ll be much stronger.

    May could be a huge piece either as a starter or bullpen piece.
    None of us have confidence in Kimbrel, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be our closer (see Jansen, Kenley). If he totally goes off the deep end, Phillips and Almonte have been mentioned, but one guy I don’t see often spoken about, and whom I think has closer mentality and stuff, is Caleb Ferguson. He could be huge down the stretch if he stays healthy.

    If either JT or Muncy get injured, I think the first guy we see is Vargas. I don’t expect to see Busch this year.

  3. Predictions. Well, I’m more of a pessimist at this point. I said early I thought this starting staff was vulnerable. So…..

    Anderson and Gonsolin have surprised everyone. They won’t keep it up. Not possible. Last year both Kershaw and Scherzer flamed out with dead arms. This year it will be Gonsolin and Anderson . Maybe Urias too. He did go 185 last year but by the CS he was done. And I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Kershaw goes back on the IL, perhaps for a little rest. I don’t believe Buehler or Heaney will be of much help. I don’t think they’ll risk pushing May.

    We will trade for something, I hope it’s pitching. Bats won’t become dead like arms do.

      1. With pitching it’s fatigue.

        It’s my opinion Max isn’t 100%. Both he and Cody haven’t been the same since their injuries. I am hoping the second half will be better for both. If not, wait til next year.

        I think fans expecting pitchers to do what they’ve never done is unrealistic. It’s much more likely they will repeat what they have done before. That’s what projections are based on and most are fairly accurate. Examples of that are Muncy projected to OPS around .800 and Gonsolin projected just over 100 innings. It’s conceivable to me Muncy could OPS .800 the rest of the way. Gonsolin will hit 107 innings relatively soon. Anderson pitched 167 last year, so I believe he could do it again. Urias pitched 185. Can he do that and go 6-7 multiple times in October? I admit I have doubts about this staff. I have fewer concerns about our offense.

      2. Can’t argue with any of those points, Scoop. You’ve been saying for weeks/months that you don’t expect this group of pitchers to hold up for the rest of the season/playoffs the way they’ve performed so far and that’s a very reasonable assumption.

        I suppose, somewhere in the depths of Dodger Stadium the execs are trying to figure out exactly what, if any, starting innings they can count on getting from Buehler, May and Heaney (and to a much lesser extent Pepiot and Miller/Stone) and based on their conclusions they will trade or not trade accordingly.

        All we can do is sit here and wait until early August to find out what they concluded.

      3. We can do more than just sit here, we can vomit up ridiculous trade scenarios that will increase our odds of winning in October.

        I’ll start. Castillo was an All Star and he plays for a team we have dealt with before. They like Kyle Farmer and he’s worked out well for them. We’ve got another Farmer in our system, his name is McKinstry and we have no room for him. Trade him, Outman and Pepiot, along with AA Somebody and a FASTBNL (future All Star to be named later) for Castillo and Drury.

      4. I resent the fact that you refer to my potential trade scenarios as vomit.

        That said, I’m a major McKinstry fan and would love to see him get a chance with the Reds. He sure ain’t gonna get it here.

        I have mixed feelings about how much we need Drury because I have no clue how long CT3 will be out. Once he returns I think the need evaporates. And since we have a 10 game cushion, I think I’d rather wait and save the prospect capital.

        I’m guessing it would take something like Pepiot and Pages to beat out the other offers for Castillo and I’m not sure how I feel about doing that (probably a little more negative than positive).

      5. Ok, that’s a start.

        Hold on a second, I gotta clean this puke off my shoe.

        I chose Drury because I think he’s an improvement over Alberto. CT might be back starting in left field.

        I don’t want to part with Pages and I think he an Pepiot are too much for Castillo. Hell Pepiot might be as good as Castillo now, and better than Castillo next year. (That’s my pitch to them). How about Knack and Vivas? That’s 7 and 9 in our system and on your 25 man roster next year.

      6. Remember, we’re not trading in a vacuum here. Other teams are bidding against us and some are probably more desperate.

        Knack has fallen off lately after a very good start so his value may be a bit down.
        I consider Vivas and Leonard the same player so have no problem trading one of them, but I don’t think Knack/Vivas gets it done.

      7. Knack’s H/9 is in line and his K/9 is 12.8. I don’t know what’s going on there but whatever it is it needs to get figured out. Maybe a new organization, one that is pitching rich like Cincinnati, can get it figured out.

  4. Andy/Dennis – just wanted to call your attention to a kid we signed yesterday as a non-drafted free agent.

    He’s originally from Hazelton, PA. I know you both live in the Keystone state but I have no idea if you’re anywhere near Hazelton.

    Anyway, the guy’s name is Livan Reinoso, he played last year for an NAIA school (Tennessee Wesleyan) and is also a member of the world famous Savannah Bananas.

    He’s played third base, right field and has also done a little pitching.
    Hitting: .417/.495/.921 and leading the NAIA in homers with 32.
    Pitching: 16.2 K/9 and a 2.40 ERA in 15 innings on the mound.

    He sounds like the best thing since sliced bread and Shohei Ohtani

    Obviously the odds are against his ever having an MLB career but stranger things have happened.

    1. Oh cool! Hazelton is about an hour southeast of me. I knew they got a guy from the Bananas but I didn’t realize it was this guy

  5. As Andy states, the Dodgers have predicted Heaney, Treinen, and May are back by August sometime. That is a massive infusion of talent way better than a trade. Plus we may get Buehler back. I believe the Dodgers will use White, Pepiot and others a bit more in the second half to lessen the starts of the first half guys. I think Pepiot has the talent to at least match Castillo. Pepiot’s change is a difference maker. Will Gonzalez be back? He doesn’t get mentioned very much.
    I believe we have better talent coming back from the IL and better talent in the Farm than we can trade for. Can Thompson stabilize his offense or was he just a flash in the pan? If the Dodgers do not believe he can hit then I would trade McKinstry or mid level prospect and a young arm and find a good outfielder with great splits against lefties.

    1. I’m still touting Garrett Cooper, but I don’t think the Marlins will let him go for Zmac and a mid level pitching prospect. It would take more than that.

      He’s an excellent hitter, very consistent from year to year and equally effective against lefties and righties. He can play the corner outfield, first base and DH.

      1. Thompson just doubled to bring in their second run tonight. As Jeff has remarked the Dodgers know have the medical reports on all their players. They also have all the reams of stats and feedback from their coaches. Most of us believe they will make the right decision. I keep wondering if Thompson will do a Lux and figure out he just has to make contact. They still have the Bauer plea hanging over their budget too. Which may impact their decisions. Plus they have a lot of talent coming up fast. If I were running the Dodgers I would stand pat as they are 10 games up and use the Farm guys and take my chances on the IL guys coming back if that’s their medical staffs prediction. Baseball is a business and ever corporation attempts to maximize its P&L.

    2. Wish I had as much confidence in the returning players as you do Tmax. I do not. I believe the Dodgers will be very cautious with Buehler and May. Heaney? Whatever he can offer will helpful but I don’t see him as an innings eater. We will see a few minor leaguers, and we will see more of our 4A starter Mitch White.

      1. I mostly agree with you Scoop. Use the Farm guys to evaluate them The 4A guys is through 3 with a no hitter and leading 2-0 although he looked shaky end of the 3rd. Not all of these Farm guys are going to make the Dodger roster. Take the ones you are sure are not talented enough and trade them. McKinstry, Leonard, Eddys, will Outman make it? The pitchers are in a dog fight. White has performed well so has Pepiot and Grove but next year the rotation is probably May, Buehler, Gonsoln, Urias and Kershaw? or Anderson? or Pepiot? So trade White and one of the other young guys like Grove. or a couple of the position guys I listed and get what they need. JT and Alberto have doubled in the 3rd and its 5-0. Wow if JT can stay hot and Thompson and Alberto hit to league average the Dodgers are in great shape.

      2. I also expect less from the returning players. They will treat them with kid gloves and won’t contribute much this year. We all seem to agree on bringing up the farm guys. We have a 10 game lead and a schedule where we play mostly tier 2 teams. Perfect to break them in. Better then the pressure in September even with a 25 game jead. Weed them out now. Predictions? I kind of think AF will again make a big splash. We are still barely above 500 against over 500 teams.

  6. Two of the Dodgers last series before the break were against SD and Atlanta & went 5 out of 7. If this team can score runs and with their pitching they r a very good team.

  7. Well I don’t really consider the padres as contenders . They are just starting their annual swoon. Dodgers are not much h above 500 against over 500 teams and are almost 750 against the under 500’s. Kind of the same problem we’ve had for 10 years. Cruise until we meet good teams in the post season. They’ll do something im sure.

  8. Roberts the other day was insistent they would stretch May out to start. Does that mean Buehler is not coming back? I wonder…

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