As the summer sun fades and the fall weather moves in, the Los Angeles Dodgers find themselves in a pivotal juncture of their 2024 campaign. With only a full month left in the regular season, every game becomes a high-stakes battle for playoff positioning. Amidst this critical stretch, the team’s starting pitching rotation stands as both a strength and a potential stumbling block.

The rotation’s performance will play a key role in whether the team can outlast the Diamondbacks and Padres to gain a favorable seeding in the playoffs. As they navigate injuries, inconsistencies and the relentless pressure of the playoff chase, the Dodgers once again face a critical test. This final stretch will reveal whether their arms can deliver when it matters most and secure the team’s place in October baseball history.

Navigating the Critical Injuries

Over the course of the 2024 season, the landscape of the Los Angeles rotation seemingly changed daily because of the frequency of injuries. Two of the biggest names currently on the injured list — and who could still potentially make an impact in this year’s playoffs — are right-handers Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow.

Yamamoto, who has been on the injured list with rotator cuff issues since June 15, took the biggest step in his recovery when he completed two innings in a rehab start for Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday. He threw 31 pitches and allowed one run on one hit with his fastball peaking at 95 mph.

Yamamoto will throw a bullpen on Sunday with hopes of making a lengthier start with OKC on Tuesday. The goal is for him to complete a few more rehab starts before potentially rejoining the rotation in mid-September, which could conceivably give him up to three starts to prove his value for the playoffs.

Glasnow has been out since mid-August with what was originally believed to be a minor case of right elbow tendinitis. The original plan was to have him battle through the injury, but the team decided to prioritize his long-term health. Earlier this week, skipper Dave Roberts said Glasnow’s recovery was progressing slower than expected.

As the countdown to the playoffs begins, Yamamoto has theoretically leapfrogged Glasnow as far as health goes, although it’s probably safe to assume that neither is a shoo-in for a playoff roster spot, should the team indeed advance.

To make matters worse, Clayton Kershaw was pulled with no outs in the second inning of Friday’s opener against the Diamondbacks with a bone spur in his left foot. Roberts said after the game the pain came from a lingering injury and that the veteran lefty could conceivably end up on the injured list. Kershaw had made six starts since spending the first four months of the season on the shelf as he recovered from offseason shoulder surgery.

In a Perfect World…

Right now, the Dodgers only have a handful of starting pitchers available who have made multiple starts this season in Jack Flaherty, Gavin Stone, Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller, Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski. How many pitchers the Dodgers would need to start the playoffs depends largely on how the team finishes down the stretch run of the regular season.

If the Dodgers fall short in their hunt for a divisional title and still make the playoffs, they will participate in a best-of-three wildcard series that will require two starting pitchers if they sweep or three if it goes the full three games. The good news here is that it gives arms like Yamamoto, Glasnow and Kershaw more time to settle in (or recover). The bad news is that the extra series taxes the rotation significantly more after an already rigorous regular season.

If Los Angeles wins the division and has one of the Top 2 records, the club will get a first-round bye and begin the playoffs in a best-of-five NLDS. The NLDS would likely require the services of up to four legit starting pitchers unless Roberts were to opt for at least one bullpen game.

Should the postseason start today, Flaherty and Stone would be at the top of the pecking order. In a perfect world, all three of Yamamoto, Glasnow and Kershaw would be available as potential postseason options. In the meantime, Buehler and Miller might both be auditioning for possible playoff roster spots.

As the Dodgers head into the final weeks of the regular season, their starting pitching will be under intense scrutiny. With key arms needing to step up and potential adjustments on the horizon, the rotation’s performance will be a major determinant of the team’s postseason success. Quite possibly, the coming games will offer a crucial glimpse into whether the Dodgers can navigate their pitching puzzle and make a compelling run in October.