After a brouhaha with the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday evening where the Dodgers bullpen squandered yet another game, and closer Archie Bradley had some words with the Dodgers’ dugout, the Boys in Blue rebounded and collected yet another series win.
The Dodgers now lead the NL West by 19 games on August 12th. Their magic number to clinch the division is 25, and they are on pace to clinch the division the first week in September.
With that win, (and a walk-off win for the Baltimore Orioles against the Houston Astros), the Dodgers regained the best record in the Major Leagues at 79-41, a .658 winning percentage. The Astros and Yankees are tied at 77-41, for a .653 wining percentage.
Los Angeles is 48-16 at home, and 13-1 in home day games. They are 12-4 over their last 16 games.
It was their 25th series win of the season. The starting rotation pitched 20 scoreless innings, and allowed only 12 hits across those three games. The Dodgers rotation as a whole, through their last cycle through, allowing just two earned runs in 30.2 innings of work. And that was with Hyun-Jin Ryu on the IL.
For his part, Ryu’s numbers are incredible. After seven shutout innings against the DBacks on Sunday, Ryu has lowered his ERA to 1.45. Just one bad outing in Colorado has let him from having an ERA that is close to 1.00. At Dodgers Stadium this season, he has a 0.81 ERA, allowing only seven earned runs over 77.2 innings. He’s only allowed two earned runs at Chavez Ravine since May 7th.
Ryu isn’t having a historic season by blowing the ball by batters or missing bats. He’s doing it with finesse and pitching to contact. He’s struck out only nine batters in his last 19.2 innings, but has allowed only one run.
In the world of advanced metrics, Ryu is having the second best season since 1901 according to ERA+, which adjusts and accounts for ballpark and opponents’ averages. He’s second to Pedro Martinez‘s historic 2000 season. Pedro’s ERA+ was 291, and Ryu is currently sitting at 284. His ERA- is first all time at 34.80, ahead of Pedro’s which was 35.32 in 2000.
While some talking heads believe the Nationals have the best starting rotation in the NL, the Dodgers have three pitchers (Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler and Ryu) in the top 12 in the Majors in ERA, and those same three at top eight in the Majors in WHIP, with Kershaw’s being the highest of the three at 1.04.
On the offensive side, Justin Turner is heating up at the right time. He had two homers in Sunday’s game, his second two homer game of the season, and ninth of his career. He lead the team in offense over the weekend, going 7-for-22 with two homers, four extra base hits total and five RBI. He had 15 total bases, four runs, three walks and a 1.082 OPS. He is quietly up to 19 home runs on the season.
Cody Bellinger hit his 38th home run of the season, and is now tied with Pete Alonso and one behind both Christian Yelich and Mike Trout for the Major League lead. While his average has fallen to ‘just’ .317, three of his last four hits have been homers.
The Dodgers have 42 games left in the season. If they go .500 over those games, they will still end the season with 100 wins. There are 12 series remaining, and only four are against teams with winning records (NYY, NYM, Atlanta and Tampa Bay). Chances are very good that they will finish with a win total well above 100.
While the World Series Championship is the ultimate goal, the Dodgers are once again having a great regular season and the numbers bear it out. They should also help lead the Dodgers to said Championship.
Think Blue Planning Committee 
Problem, do the Dodgers re-sign Ryu. Logical answer, yes. Makes sense, but for how long? I would think they will make an offer at least. 3 years would be my guess with maybe 20 mil a year. Boras will seek more elsewhere no doubt. But based on his age, and preference to stay in LA, which I believe is the case, he pretty much has more say so than Boras. After all, even as big an ass as he is, Boras still has to do what his client wants. He is nothing more than an agent. Now if the money is the main thing for Ryu, he is most likely gone. Because the Dodgers pretty much have an idea and length of the contract they would be willing to offer. And Ryu is not going to be the only FA premium pitcher on the market this winter. On the other hand, Rich Hill will most likely NOT be resigned. Not with kids like Gonsolin and May chomping at the bit to take his place. I do not think that LA would get involved in any kind of bidding war like they did over Harper. I do think however that this off season, bulking up the bullpen is going to be a priority. With one maybe 2 premium arms targeted. Chances of them landing Smith or someone like that as a free agent would be pretty good.
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Next years possible rotation without Ryu, Kershaw, Urias, Buehler, May, Maeda. 2020 schedule released today. Interesting. They face the Giants in 6 of their first 9 games. They are finished with the Cardinals by April 16th. The season starts on the 26th of March in LA against the Giants. They are finished with the Phillies by May 20th, the Pirates by April 26th. 2 central and 1 east team over before May. Interesting. The season ends on September 27th I think. Early start and early ending.
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“Four pitches, changing speeds, changing locations, pitching to all four quadrants of the strike zone. It’s command over velocity.” Turner on Ryu.
Yimi, Pedro, are you listening? In fact ALL you guys – watch and learn.
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You should be the new Dodgers pitching coach there Scoop!
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I like Ryu but not for 20 mil per for 3 years. I believe we have some great arms in the starting rotation.
Spend the money on the BULLPEN!!!!!!!!!!!!
Once and for all let’s put a bullpen out there!!!!!!
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Not up to us, and they will address the pen in some way, he always does. Not that it has worked out that great. Have to see what the market is for Ryu, I personally think he is worth more than Hill got, especially over the last couple of years. The Dodgers have gotten 30 wins from Hill in his tenure here. A little over 300 innings. An ERA right about 3.00. In his healthy seasons Ryu has eclipsed that easily. He is a lot younger than Hill was when they gave him 3 at 48 or whatever it was, and he is not a power pitcher, so he is not going to break down His career ERA is under 3 which is excellent. I say 3 at 20 per is going below what will be his market value, and he is way more reliable than Maeda, and despite their obvious talent, no one has a clue as to how well May or Gonsolin would be in the rotation next year. I say if he wants to stay here, keep him
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It’s amazing how many swing and misses Ryu gets with his changebup out of the zone! I definetley think he is very co mfortable and wants to stay inLA and three years and 60 mil would be a good deal for Dodgers.! It’s not like Ryu is gonna lose any of his stuff since he doesn’t rely on velocity. It’s just an issue of keeping him and his groin healthy!
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And Larry makes a good point. Will AF make a move for a closer like Smith? A lot of money coming of the books from Hill. We’ll see! But I’d still like to sign Ryu. You can never have too much starting pitching! Ask the poor Angels!
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As Alex so famously states. “Pay the man”!
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3 at 20 would do it. With today’s cost per WAR he would need to put up 6+ WAR to earn the money. If the team can limit his innings to 130 a year he might actually pitch all 3 years. You do know he’s been here 7 years, right? Ages 26-32, considered prime years, he’s averaged 100 innings per year. 13.8 total WAR so far. Ages 28-30 he was injured – a lot. His best year, by quite a margin, is this year. This is a contract year. (boisterous ingurgitation for impact). I find him risky. I want him around, but 3 and 20 sounds steep. Give him the McAnderzmir contract – 3 @ 16.
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If 3/60 sounds steep to you Scoop, you can start practicing your good-bye wave. There won’t be many really good starters out there this coming winter. Cole is about the only one I can think of. Most pundits think he’ll get 6 or 7 years, let’s say 6 and there is no way he won’t get at least $150 mil. Both Cole and Ryu have been around for about the same number of years but Cole has about 60% more total innings due to lack of injury. Having pitched far fewer innings Ryu has 14.8 career WAR vs Cole’s 21.2 (Baseball Ref). Ryu’s lifetime ERA is half a run lower. We’ve already discussed how Ryu’s age won’t be a huge factor because of his pitch selection and strategy. Let’s assume Ryu finishes first or second in the Cy Young voting and Cole gets a contract somewhere between 150-175 million. Do you really think Ryu’s going to have to settle for 3/60? Teams who will be looking for starters for 2020: Angels, Padres, Giants, Rockies, Mariners, Yanks, Red Sox, Phillies and Cubs, just to name a few. I would think one of those GM’s will roll the dice and give him an offer of at least 75-80 mil which will be about half of what Cole gets.
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Interesting article I read a few minutes ago about our favorite closer. Roberts says now that the team is going to make an adjustment to the way they will employ Jansen. Previously they deferred to save situations only. Now Roberts says that they will make sure Kenley gets more regular work. No more 5 or 4 days in between pitching. Jansen says he is better being used regularly than with so many off days…we will see if that leads to better pitching during save opportunities.
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I would tend to think Kenley might be right about that. They’ll need to strike a balance though, between using him too much and not enough.
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I seem to be having trouble posting here. I’ll try again
Gerritt Cole is 28, has thrown 1139 innings, with a 1.15 WHIP, a 122 ERA+, and 3.15 FIP. I just don’t see how Ryu’s 1 great year compares to that history. I’d rather pay Cole to 33 for $125MM than Ryu to 36 for $60MM. Not that close on my board. I think age 33 with a history of injury is ABSOLUTELY relevant. I’m tired of signings like McCarthy, Anderson and Kazmir. I hope Friedman is too.
You are probably right that some team will offer 3/60, maybe more. I just don’t think it will be the Dodgers.
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I read that bit from Roberts too Bear. Sounds like b.s. to me. He’s off this year and that’s an excuse. Jansen is on pace for 62 innings. He’s pitched 68, 68 and 71. At his age I would think to keep him sharp for a run to November fewer stressful innings would be a good idea. If he feels he needs more work he could throw bullpen sessions in 9-3 games.
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Didn’t realize he was on pace for 62 innings, probably because he hasn’t pitched all that much lately and we’re trying to forget the times he did.
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This is interesting:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=ryu—000hye
A lot more mileage on that big body than I realized. Does it change anything? Maybe. 200+ innings as a 19 year old? Yoiks. They sure don’t do that here.
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You’re right. That’s a lot of innings over in Korea. Just means we have to figure a year off for TJ surgery out of the three year contract. No worries, we’ll just give him an extra year. He’ll be pitching into his 40’s anyway. No problem is insurmountable if you have enough money and time and are willing to listen to my sometimes flawed reasoning.
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Put him on the Rich Hill plan. A couple weeks off a few times a year, 20-25 starts 110-125 innings.Hope like hell he remains plumb for 3 years and 70 starts. That might be worth 3/60. Hill put up 3+ WAR in 110 innings in ‘16. Ryu might could pull that off.
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I’m still convinced someone will give him 4 years, although it may very well not be Friedman.
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If it’s Seattle he may turn it down. California teams might have a shot with a 4 year offer.
I’m sure Friedman and Honeycutt would want him around the plethora of puerile pitching we will have available next year. Good influence and all that. But at what cost? He’s making close to $18mm now. How about 3 more at that number? Let’s you and Alex negotiate from there
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Have Alex’s people call my people to set up a meeting. I prefer negotiating in person. If you have nothing to do this morning you can be my people.
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I’m at the VA clinic in Santa Ana. I have no people. Don’t want any. Not really that fond of people.
Alex has been quiet for a while. “Pay the man”. Ok, I’m paying him. You gonna accept or counter?
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Questions:
1) OK, you don’t like people. What’s your opinion on dogs and/or cats?
2) How much are you paying him and what side am I on here? Is Alex playing the role of GM and I’m the agent or the other way around or are we on the same side?
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I’m ok with most critters. Mosquitos and roaches are exceptions.
You’ll need to keep up Jefe. I just offered 3 @ 18. Of course we’re on the same side….. most of the time. Not exactly here as my understanding is you would give him 4 years. Do I have that wrong? I’m assuming Alex would give him a Greinke deal. I don’t know as I haven’t heard
from him in in a while.
3 @ 18 per. I front load it. Take it today or I walk.
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No way the leading candidate for the Cy Young takes 3/54 and signs now, no matter how badly he wants to stay in L.A. If nothing else he’ll take his chances in free agency and use that as leverage.
I’m not saying you aren’t offering enough from a Dodger standpoint, I’m saying you aren’t offering enough to get him to sign now.
My point from the very beginning of this discussion is that I feel someone (quite possibly not AF) will offer him at least 4 years and there will be other offers at 3 years with an annual salary of at least 20 mil per year if not more.
I totally understand your position. I’m just saying it isn’t enough to get him to sign.
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Pitching in the pen is not the same as in a game. If he feels like he wants to throw against live hitters in a game they are cruising or behind, I don’t have a problem with it. Each player knows his own body better than we do. Difference between Cole and Ryu is simply this, they have never given any pitcher more than 3 years, including Kershaw’s extension. And Cole is going to find some team out there willing to go 5 or more and it won’t be the Dodgers. Rotation for this trip switched up. May tonight, Kershaw tomorrow and Buehler on Thursday.
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Good points Bear.
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Phillies dumped their hitting coach and brought back Charlie Manuel. Shades of the Mets bringing in 82 year old Phil Regan. That worked well for them so the Phil’s are going old school with 75 year old Charlie. Maybe the Dodgers need to install Koufax as their pitching coach simply for the bullpen guys.
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I’ll coach the defense. I’m tired of seeing guys standing around out there. All 9 guys move on every pitch. Outfielders, anticipate an overthrow on every play. No excuse for a guy stealing second to end up at third. It won’t happen again if I’m defensive coordinator. Every base covered and every base backed up. I see you standing around out there you’ll be sitting around in here post haste. Are we clear? ARE WE CLEAR?
I’d last one day with those millionaire prima donnas.
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I notice that a lot too. I am not sure who coaches the infielders, but I think it is Geren and Lombard is the OF coach.
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Never can tell Scoop. They might like some well aimed constructive criticism from an old hand like you.
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I have no credibility. The only professional baseball I ever played was for some under the table money from a softball sponsor. They wouldn’t listen to me. First assignment would be to read The Dodger Way to Play Baseball. I’d lose half of them by asking them to read.
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Jefe – I can’t get this to land under your counter proposal post, and I have edit capability at the moment (it won’t last) so I’ll try to move it here:
Strong argument sir.
Now go f*@# yourself.
Just kidding.
Ok, we’re talking now First of all, there will be no $80 million from us. You got that on the table I suggest you take it. I’m just not convinced this year’s performance is repeatable for more than one year. 3 @ 18. With that you can back to the 1 WAR average pitcher you were for ‘16-‘18 and make out like a bandito. Also….I’ll give a performance rated 4th year. You average 2.5 WAR for 3 years you get a 4th. I will also add measurable performance incentives for innings, All Star appearances and Cy Young votes.
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Cursing at the negotiating table. I must have struck a nerve. 🙂
I can’t have 80 mil on the table because no one can make me an offer until the season is over. So let’s just assume we’re talking after the season is over. I don’t count 2016. That was 4 innings pitched and I’ve discovered that with shoulder surgery (which is considered by most to be worse than TJ) you need a full year playing after surgery to fully recover. That leaves 2018 and 2019, both of which have been great. I like your suggestions for the 4th year vesting and the other perks. When free agency starts, I’ll see what offers I get and let you have the last bid. In spite of Boras, I want to sign quickly and if you’re willing you will know by early December if I’m coming back (before the Winter Meetings).
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I know this: By comparison to the high rate of return to success for Tommy John patients, the record of pitchers returning from shoulder labrum operations to reclaim their prior form is checkered. Surgery should be a last resort. Any time you carve a body up you be taking chances. We already took chances on older surgically repaired pitchers. How’d that work out? Checkered would be generous.
So, we wait to finish these negotiations. Win a game in each post season series and you may win me over.
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See what two reasonable men can accomplish?
What should we tackle next?
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Global warming? The cost of health care? The collapse of social cohesion? Do we really need a Top Gun II?
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How about this? Is global warming having an effect on the rate of home runs?
Talk amongst yourselves.
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That and the tightly wound super ball now being used by MLB.
We’ve been talking amongst ourselves for hours now Jefe.
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